Poker Anyone? ...by Semtex.

When I served in the Guards, and depending whereabouts in the world we were, or what our deployment was, we often used to deal a few hands of poker, to kill time.

I did ok, won a few, lost a few, but was never going to be good enough to leave the military and make my name in Vegas. Short of either winning a few prized Mars Bars or worse still, losing my favourite, a box of those fruit gums in the shapes of the various fruits, it didn't get too serious.

I haven't played for years now, but remembering enjoying the "bluff" part of the game, and even better......."going blind!"

Its been a while now since Uber seemingly came out of nowhere to cause mayhem within our trade.

Its fair to say too I think, that Uber's non-compliant and unscrupulous business model has caused mayhem unrest and turmoil, throughout the world. Wherever they set their stall up, controversy, backlash and unrest, is guaranteed to rear it's head !

In the main, this trouble and backlash isn't caused because Uber offer such a dazzling service, it is caused because their operational intent is too ride tram like, through years of sustainable licensing policy and law. But that only works, when they have assistance. London proved to be ideal!

One therefore doesn't have to be Lieutenant Columbo, to assume that along the way to success, they have had "a bit of help".

Now, before I continue, and going by certain comments on my previous Taxileaks piece, please try to read in between the lines on some of my writings, as the litigation of libel is a serious threat. I'm not naïve, but just want to assume that our readers understand Jim Thomas's responsibility to publish. It's not an easy remit.

Anyway, I digress. Uber have this "attractive" business projection and plan which they say offers cost effective, safe and professional travel, with a driver who has excellent knowledge and customer based skills.

The thing is, and I can safely say this loudly and clearly...........................................THEY DONT !

It is pointless me taking this statement to pieces and explaining and proving each part, because we all know that the statement above is a complete fabrication and marketing ruse! Their service is run by the seat of their pants, their licensing is dubious, their insurance is dubious and their expertise, knowledge and customer service is shite!

Now, before I write this next part, please be assured that I am not knocking, slating or trying to belittle any of our colleagues, who by any which way they are able, trying to take the war to Uber. I agree we have to, and I appreciate their efforts, honestly I do.

But last week, I read that some of our colleagues are actually offering to meet Uber head on with their pricing structure and doing the job for more or less what an Uber car would charge.

Now, I don't know of the exact workings of this, who is involved, whether it is organised officially or just a group of our own taking part, or whatever.

But when I saw it.......it worried me !

Now I know full well, that by making that statement I'm setting myself up to be shot down, and colleagues will say " well what else can we do? Have you got any better ideas?" And they would be understandably right to say that, and incidently, no, I haven't got any better ideas! When anyone gets into my cab, I charge the metered fare that is showing. No more and certainly not less. 

I know we can negotiate with the punter on a lower fare, but until the day comes that I can also negotiate on what vehicle I drive, what tyres I use, what stickers I have stuck in my window and other stuff, whoever gets into my cab pays the metered fare structured by TFL.

So learning about our mates meeting Uber head on in a price war, concerned me for various reasons.

Without doubt, Uber's master plan and ultimate intention, is to offer rides so ridiculously cheap, that their service and cars become habit forming to the punter, and synonymous with travelling across the capital. It can be compared with a new bakers offering their cakes for free for a day. Hopefully, punters will enjoy the cakes so much, that they will become long term customers. The idea is that simple. 

If Uber can can do that for long enough, and give their service at low prices as they do, the proper professionals, ie The Licensed London Cabby, will be suffocated out of business, due to their much higher licensing and operating criteria, which we cannot afford to divert from. Less and less candidates would sign up for the Topographical Knowledge Test, more and more proper professional cabbies would leave the trade and turn their backs, and the London Taxi would be more or less extinct. 

Let's face it, the Yank's ain't doing too bad in London on that score, are they ? If the current trend continues, TFL continue to "back them", and our trade just cant hang in there anymore............it's a victory to them.

And it is exactly at that point........THAT UBER WILL TURN THE CARDS OVER, AND SHOW NOT A ROYAL FLUSH, BUT A POXY PAIR OF TWO'S ! YES , THEY WERE BLUFFING ! A WELL KNOWN AND SOMETIMES BRILLIANT STRATEGIC POKER MOVE!

For it is exactly at that precise moment, that old pricing tariffs will be shredded, and due to a lack of professional black cabs on the capital's streets, they will hike up their prices to a much more realistic and business workable viable margin, probably three or four times the tariff that our London Trade have ever charged!

Of course, Uber's current policy of "surge charging" is already firmly in situ. Surge charging is just a more PC style of saying, " If London Black Cabs are unusually busy, or there's a tube strike or a terrorist threat or it's Christmas or whatever....hold on to your wallets folks, as we are about to tear the arse end right out of your monthly salary! No more Mr Cheap Guy!"

I will tell you something else as well, which is strange, but true. I have had it from a very reliable source of mine, who is quite senior in the city, that the big investor boys globally, are getting a little chill around their feet with Uber. Its true.

Apparently, they haven't made a profit for some time now, indeed, their latest losses are kept as secretly covered as they possibly can. But they are thought to run into millions !

On paper of course, and understandably flattering, Uber currently sits at being valued around 60 BILLION DOLLARS !

That's a lot of dough isn't it?  But a lot of bankers, private investors and agitated Hedge Fund Managers are closely watching this California Mob, because apparently, they have been losing money steadily for a few years. Not just a few grand here and there either . If sources are correct in their figures, losses of around HALF A BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR, are being quoted ! Uber Managing Board are requesting calm and understanding. 

They say they are confident that their "model" will start to change and profits will turn good soon. Investors and backers naturally are concerned. So would I be ! Especially if its a long firm !

I'm no Donald Trump, but I don't care who you are or who is backing you, that's an awful lot of readies  being lost every year, and surely not sustainable in the long term? Unless of course, something changes ! But what could change ?

I tell you what could change. I think they have "promised" their investors, that in regard to London anyway, as soon as they get us out of the way, their profit forecast will rise, because with us gone, they can then implement the new and more realistic "permanent and massive surge charge rates !"

So when I saw that our colleagues were trying to match this lot, my heart sank. I know its hard out there, I know our arses are on the floor, I know many of us are going skint, but honestly, I cannot see it being of any value whatsoever, to try to beat Uber on price. I think it is a price war we just cant win. Its like one of us buying a pub, and trying to compete with J.D. Wetherspoon on prices. It just cannot be done !

For our colleagues in favour of competing with Uber, who say to me how can they pay their mortgages then, I am afraid I have no answer. But surely, two wrongs don't make a right. But just maybe, if we can sit around the poker table with the Yankee Players, play the game as we always have, look them in the eye and tempt them to try to "go blind" with us, maybe, just maybe, the high rolling investors around the globe who are beginning to worry about chucking $100 bills at these gamblers............will get cold feet and start pulling away.

If that happens, Uber would be unable to cover such huge losses, and unable to compete with our professional offer on a genuine, level, operating and licensing playing field...................would have no alternative than to leave the table.

For people that say that a firm backed by giants such as Google and Goldman Sachs could never fail..........think again !

Goldman Sachs didn't get to the rank in the financial corporation that it is today through bad investments. If Uber's yearly losses are as bad as forecasted, the wheels will be coming off soon. No matter how good you are. There is no sentiment at Goldman Sachs.  Cash is King. End Of !

Not only that. Uber's drivers are becoming increasingly disenchanted. Bonuses and perks are being stripped back. Payments to drivers are being cut to the bone and other joining incentives are being shaved.

The signs are definitely there folks, to confirm the investor's fears.  If only we can hang in there, I reckon we could do a "Rourkes Drift" on these shysters!

To impede us and hinder us much more of course, is TFL's and City Hall's apparent "kid glove" treatment of these Uber Business people. One could be forgiven for wondering if the legendary Tubby Isaac had returned and set up a stall within the catacombs of Transport For London, or that maybe the fishy aroma was the ghostly ectoplasm of a lorry load of crab sticks being unloaded at City Hall. One thing is for sure, there is something fishy going on with this Uber safe passage and comfortable progress turnout.

My fear of our trade competing financially with an outfit who simply don't have the standards, licensing criteria or level of professionalism as us, let alone the vehicle restrictions, wheelchair compatibility and other restraints, gives me concern.

Not least, if in my dreams that I awake one morning and Uber will have disappeared as quickly as they emerged, Londoners will expect us to continue with the costs and structure that we applied mid battle with Uber. And of course, that would be untenable.

I have no doubt that even if Uber collapsed in the form that we know it to be now, it will reform in some other guise, as a major mini cab outfit. Be currently, the path of ease appears to have been laid out safe and comfortable for them, and they have understandably grasped it.

As my mate's on here and within the trade know, I am by nature a militant person. I have witnessed first hand the destruction, loss of opportunity, and sadly, whilst in service, loss of life, when drawn out dialogue, empty promises and long winded negotiating fails.

Get in, do the job and get out again is my sort of style. Yes, casualties  sometimes occur, yes the strategy can sometimes fail, and I realise that of course, we can be killed in our objective too, but one thing is for certain.......the outcome, whether successful or failure, is rapidly ascertained !

It is to that end, that I have always vigorously promoted and supported any form of legal but disruptive action against the slippery, pension chasing, promotion hungry traitors who stand and watch our legacy crumble. 

They hate the attention it causes, they hate having to answer for our action and they hate us taking the whip hand. And that's why they deserve it ! They don't give a toss about us, the knowledge, our history, or our service. As far as they are concerned, Oliver Cromwell is just a perch for pigeons to shit on, as he stands proudly and  innoxiously steadfast on his plinth, in the shadow of The House Of Deceit! All they are concerned with, is salary, promotion and feathering their own soiled nest.  Bullshit, promises, weak legal challenge, and faux professional allegiance when they say they want to help us, wastes valuable time and resources for us.

So folks, the cards are being dealt. Around the table are us, Uber, TFL and City Hall. Shall we go blind, glance at our hand and bluff, raise the stakes, or throw our hand in and stack ?

It will be our call soon, so we need a game theory, probability plan, and psychological edge. Have we got it, or should we leave the table ?

 When the dealer locks his gaze on to us, we shall have to make a call. What should it be ?

 It is a hugely momentous decision for our trade, and there is far more at risk than a box of fruit shaped fruit gums this time!

What ever happens at the table, keep your eye on the clock folks............................it doesn't give a monkey's for Poker !

Tick, tock, tick, tock, tick, tock tick....................................

Be lucky all.

8829 Semtex.